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Strong foreign trade data of China may raise interest rates at any time
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China's General Administration of Customs on Friday (10) released data, China in November imports and exports both hit record highs, and an increased significantly exceeded market expectations, reflecting both internal and external demand to pick up. However, the outlook for the coming year, analysts still cautiously optimistic about next year's exports are expected to be somewhat lower growth rate. Years ago, part of the shares is expected to soar! Confidential! Market will soon be reversed Institutions of capital flows has changed dramatically! Main funding is plotting a new layout! China's November trade data confidence in the stability of China's economic growth, but also for the central bank's monetary policy to a solid support, such as raising interest rates are expected to include the introduction of measures to tighten the pace will accelerate, to curb high inflation expectations. The data released today show that China's exports in November rose 34.9%, far higher than the market value of the previous survey, 22.5%; China in November imports grew 37.7%, also higher than 24.2% of the value of the survey. China trade surplus of 22.89 billion U.S. dollars in November, higher than the market had expected a 220 billion U.S. dollars. Analysts: China may raise interest rates at any time CREDIT AGRICOLE CIB in Hong Kong, senior analyst and strategist DARIUSZ KOWALCZYK, said: "China is very strong trade data, the data will be putting upward pressure on the renminbi, especially in the non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market, and this increases the chance soon to tighten monetary policy, RMB interest rate will increase. " Barclays Capital analyst in Hong Kong Chang Jian pointed out that export a lot stronger than expected, possibly reflecting the holiday sales, the U.S. Thanksgiving sales are hot. Imports reflected the continued strength of domestic demand, this is not a surprise, especially considering that the Government has been taking measures to increase imports to reduce trade surplus. He said: "at any time may raise interest rates. The Chinese government needs to gradually open the tightening cycle, to contain inflation expectations." As China in November consumer price index (CPI) and other macroeconomic data will be released on Saturday, and also the central economic work conference in Beijing today, the market is widely expected to raise interest rates this weekend to usher in a sensitive window. China's export growth has peaked? Although affected by factors such as driving holidays, Chinese exports significantly more than expected in November, and some analysts raised full-year export growth is expected to close to 30% of the position. However, the trend is still hard to optimistic about the prospect of late, the next 12 months, and the first half of next year, the pressure of China's export growth is still great, there will be a decline in export growth next year. Macro-Hai Tong Securities analyst Wang Hui, believes that next year's export growth may be only 15-20%. He pointed out that next year the export of favorable factors than negative factors, including exchange rates, energy saving and emission reduction pressures, rising labor costs, reduced export tax rebate rate, and external demand concerns, U.S. economic weakness and European debt crisis. Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Singapore strategist / economist ANDY JI said: "We continue to believe that the global economic recovery is still fragile, and the rugged road. This figure can not be sustained." He said: "Our view remains that the rapid recovery as the end of global trade, China's export growth has peaked." Huarong Securities strategist Xiao Bo also said exports will once again expected to drop early next year, while imports stable at current levels, the trade surplus will shrink. Wang Jianhui Southwest Securities chief economist, said: "Now our concern is next year's export growth from January to February, currently exports affected by seasonal factors look relatively large."
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